The winless Jacksonville Jaguars host the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC South showdown at EverBank Stadium on Sunday.
Jacksonville rookie Brian Thomas headlines our Colts vs. Jaguars predictions, with Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence and the air attack set up for success against a weak Indy pass defense in Week 5.
Find out more in our NFL picks for October 6.
Colts vs Jaguars prediction
My best betBrian Thomas Over 50.5 receiving yards (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Jacksonville Jaguars rookie Brian Thomas has been a lone bright spot through the first four weeks, boasting 17 receptions for 275 yards and a pair of scores on just 26 targets. His 12.8 aDOT and 10.6 yards per target are high-end marks, and he’s connected with quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and Mac Jones for a team-high 110.3 passer rating when targeted.
Add Thomas garnering a healthy 21.1% target share, 80.8 air yards per game, and racking up 82 yards after the catch — and the rookie wideout is quickly becoming a go-to contributor in the passing attack for the Jags. Jacksonville wide receiver Gabe Davis is also nursing a shoulder injury and hasn’t been a full participant in practice through the first two sessions.
Of course, this is also a plus-matchup against the Indianapolis Colts pass defense. Indy has allowed the third-highest catch rate (69.9%) to opposing wide receivers, and quarterbacks have aired it out for the seventh-highest yards per attempt (7.81), while also generating the ninth-highest EPA per dropback.
While difficult to quantify, three of Jacksonville’s four losses have finished as one-possession games. I fully view the Jags as a middling club and not a basement dweller, and I expect a much tidier game from Lawrence when he faces a vulnerable Indy pass defense.
After all, the fourth-year QB’s 6.0 YPA and 53.3 completion percentage are well below his 7.1 and 65.9% marks over the past two seasons.
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Colts vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Brian Thomas 50+ receiving yardsTrevor Lawrence Over 21.5 completionsJaguars moneyline
+360 at BetMGM
As discussed, I’m anticipating Lawrence having a solid game against the Colts. He has a splash of statistical correction ahead, and Indianapolis has been carved up through the air. Indy has also been notably better against the run, sporting the ninth-lowest EPA per rush and 11th-ranked run defense grade per PFF.
Improved play from Lawrence correlates with the Jags moneyline, and the Colts are also set to miss multiple key starters on both sides of the ball. It’s rare for a running back to have a major impact, but I expect there to be a significant dropoff going from Jonathan Taylor to Trey Sermon. The Jaguars were also already holding opposing rushers to the fourth-lowest success rate through four games.
Colts QB Joe Flacco starting instead of Anthony Richardson (oblique) is more of a moot point. Flacco is incredibly serviceable, but he lacks the athleticism and game-breaking upside Richardson flashes behind center. Flacco is also equally turnover prone with eight picks and a fumble across five 2023 games.
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Colts vs Jaguars odds
Colts vs Jaguars live odds
Colts vs Jaguars opening odds
- Spread: Indianapolis +2.5 | Jacksonville -2.5
- Moneyline: Indianapolis +120 | Jacksonville -145
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Colts vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
- This spread has traded between Jags -2.5 and -3 all week at BetMGM.
- Shops are hanging Indy as a +3 road underdog, and it makes sense that it’s also trading below the key number of three at several books. I suspect we’ll see this line continue to flip-flop leading into Sunday. Colts QB Anthony Richardson’s (oblique) status could have an impact, but I’m expecting him to be listed as questionable and not suit up.
- This total has seen similar line movement, with the opening 45.5 climbing to 46.5 before settling at 46 on Wednesday.
